The US and Iran have a deal on paper. At sea, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘chaotic’
The US and Iran Have a Deal, But Hormuz is Chaotic
The US and Iran have a deal - Amid escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, the US and Iran have reached an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, though its implementation remains fraught with uncertainty. The deal, signed on Thursday, allows Iran to control vessel traffic through the critical waterway, which serves as a major artery for global oil and gas shipments. Despite the agreement’s promise to stabilize the region, maritime activity has already become chaotic, with reports of multiple attacks on commercial ships in the strait. This highlights the fragility of the accord and the challenges of enforcing it in practice.
Key Provisions and Strategic Control
The agreement grants Iran the authority to establish designated routes and times for ships passing through the strait, while also requiring the country to “make arrangements using its best efforts” to ensure safe passage. This dual approach aims to balance US concerns over maritime security with Iran’s desire to assert dominance over the region. However, the deal’s effectiveness hinges on Iran’s willingness to coordinate with international stakeholders, a task complicated by its growing assertiveness in the area.
“If any vessel attempts to transit in the Strait without our permission…or outside of the designated route, it is responsible for any consequences.”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been vocal about their role in enforcing the new rules, warning that ships transiting the strait without approval could face targeted strikes. Meanwhile, the United States has signaled its readiness to respond to violations, as seen in recent military strikes against Iranian positions near the waterway. While these actions have not escalated into full-scale conflict, they underscore the ongoing power struggle between the two nations.
The deal’s framework includes provisions for the establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body tasked with overseeing the strait’s operations. However, its implementation has been inconsistent, with shipping companies reporting confusion over the rules. Some vessels have been required to submit email authorization forms for a “Safe Passage Guarantee,” which includes insurance requirements. The PGSA’s lack of clear communication has left operators navigating a complex web of obligations, raising concerns about the deal’s reliability.
Escalating incidents at sea have tested the agreement’s stability. Just hours after the warning, a Singapore-registered container ship was struck by an Iranian drone, marking the first such attack since the pact was announced. President Trump called the incident a “foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement,” prompting US military responses. Yet, officials have since clarified that these actions are not a return to open conflict, but rather a demonstration of the US’s commitment to protecting its interests in the region.
Maritime experts warn that the deal’s ambiguity has created a dangerous environment for shipping. Dimitris Maniatis of Marisks noted that the current situation is “very confusing for safely navigating those waters,” emphasizing the heightened risks for vessels. The lack of consistent enforcement of Iran’s designated routes has also hindered the recovery of pre-war trade levels. Companies now face the dilemma of choosing between potential Iranian attacks and the threat of US sanctions, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.