Why Saudi Arabia has few options in its conflict with the Houthis
Saudi Arabia Faces a Narrowing Set of Choices as Houthi Pressure Grows
Qwenews.com – Saudi Arabia is confronting an increasingly dangerous situation in Yemen after the Iran-backed Houthis expanded their reach along the Red Sea coast and attacks disrupted a vital Saudi oil route. Riyadh has signaled that it does not seek a full-scale war, but the group’s recent gains and threats could leave the kingdom struggling to avoid a broader confrontation.
The stakes extend well beyond Yemen. Fighting around the Red Sea and attacks on energy infrastructure threaten shipping, oil exports and an already volatile regional balance shaped by the conflict between the United States and Iran. Saudi leaders must now weigh the consequences of restraint against the risks of a major military response.
Strategic advances on the Red Sea
This week, Houthi forces took Perim Island and the port town of Mocha, strengthening their position near the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The narrow waterway links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is one of the world’s most important routes for commercial shipping and energy supplies.
Control or disruption of territory near Bab al-Mandeb gives the Houthis greater leverage at a moment when regional transport routes are already under severe strain. Their expansion also underscores how difficult it has been for Saudi Arabia and its allies to contain the movement despite years of military pressure.
Not long afterward, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was shut down following a drone attack launched from Iraq. Responsibility for the strike has not been claimed. President Donald Trump blamed Tehran, while Iranian-linked armed groups are known to operate in Iraq.
The pipeline has become more important because the war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has used the East-West route to redirect about 5 million barrels of oil a day that otherwise would have moved toward tankers in the Persian Gulf. An interruption along that alternative corridor increases Saudi vulnerability at a particularly sensitive time.
Fear of coordinated pressure
Saudi officials had already warned that the kingdom was preparing for the possibility of several coordinated attacks involving Iraqi militias and the Houthis. The latest developments appear to reinforce those concerns and raise the prospect that Yemen’s conflict could become tied more directly to a larger regional contest.
“At this point they don’t have an option.”
Mohammed Al-Basha, a Yemen specialist and risk adviser based in Washington, DC, said the signs point toward a significant Saudi response and that the prospect is growing each day. Yet retaliation could carry serious strategic and humanitarian costs, especially if it produces an open-ended campaign rather than a limited deterrent action.
On the surface, Saudi Arabia’s wealth and modern armed forces might suggest a clear advantage over a rebel movement operating from one of the region’s poorest countries. The conflict has repeatedly shown otherwise. The Houthis have developed their military capacity and battlefield methods over years of war, proving far harder to remove than many outside observers anticipated.
A conflict rooted in Yemen’s civil war
Yemen’s current crisis began in 2014, when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, and forced the internationally recognized government into exile. Saudi Arabia launched a military intervention the following year in an attempt to restore that government and push back the rebels.
Since then, Riyadh has continued supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni authorities while maintaining an air and economic blockade affecting Houthi-held areas. Iran has supplied the Houthis with weapons and training and holds influence over some of the group’s decisions, although the movement also pursues objectives of its own.
The Houthis say their central demand remains unchanged: an end to Saudi efforts to isolate the large areas of northern Yemen under their control. Nasr al-Din Amer, who leads the Houthi-run Saba news agency, said Friday that the group would keep applying pressure on Saudi Arabia until the blockade was lifted.
“Pressuring” Saudi Arabia until they “break the siege unjustly imposed by the Saudi enemy for 12 years.”
The language indicates that the Houthis are prepared to intensify their campaign rather than step back after their recent territorial gains. The group also gained support among parts of the Middle East after launching strikes against Israel following the Gaza war that followed Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
The cost of escalation
For Saudi Arabia, escalation is one of the few available options, but it may be the most costly. Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Riyadh has limited choices in dealing with the Houthis. A decision to commit fully to a new military campaign could turn into a prolonged conflict resembling Yemen’s devastating civil war.
That war has already caused an immense humanitarian emergency. Around 22 million people in Yemen, roughly half the country’s population, need humanitarian assistance. A renewed all-out conflict would risk worsening conditions for civilians while making a negotiated settlement even more distant.
A larger Saudi-Houthi war could also draw Iran in more directly. Tehran has been at war with the United States since February, making it harder to treat Yemen as an isolated battlefield. Any Saudi response that expands beyond limited strikes could therefore have consequences for the wider US-Iran conflict, maritime security and global energy markets.
Riyadh’s immediate challenge is to demonstrate that attacks on its territory and infrastructure carry consequences without opening a conflict it may be unable to contain. The Houthis, meanwhile, appear determined to use their military gains and position near vital waterways to raise the cost of Saudi restraint. The coming days may determine whether the confrontation remains a Yemen-centered struggle or becomes another major front in a regional war.
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