Trump, crime and corruption loom over Brazil’s presidential vote
Brazil heads to the polls with Lula and Bolsonaro’s movement again at the center
Qwenews.com – Brazilian voters will choose a president on Sunday in an election shaped by political exhaustion, corruption controversies, fears about crime and a country still sharply divided between two long-established camps. The result will influence not only domestic priorities in Latin America’s largest nation, but also Brazil’s ties with Washington, Beijing and the wider world.
At the front of the contest are President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the veteran left-wing leader seeking what would likely be his final term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing candidate attempting to preserve the political force created by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.
“It’s two competing visions of what the country should look like and what Latin America should look like.”
That assessment from Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and vice president of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas, captures the wider stakes. Brazil is the world’s fifth most populous country, and voting is mandatory for most adults. Participation is therefore usually high by regional standards, giving the election unusual weight across the Americas.
A familiar rivalry, with a new Bolsonaro on the ballot
Lula, 80, first served as president from 2003 until 2010. He returned to office in 2023 after one of the most dramatic political reversals in Brazil’s recent history. The former union leader spent 580 days in prison following corruption convictions, but Brazil’s Supreme Court annulled those convictions in 2021 and reinstated his political rights. He then defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential race.
His challenger is Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son. Jair Bolsonaro cannot run because he has been barred from seeking office and is serving a 27-year prison sentence after his conviction for trying to overturn his 2022 defeat through a coup attempt. He is currently under humanitarian house arrest because of health concerns.
Flávio Bolsonaro enters the campaign with the task of converting his father’s enduring political identity into his own national bid. Polling has Lula and the younger Bolsonaro running closely, while four other candidates remain behind them: psychiatrist and bestselling author Augusto Cury, a centrist; former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, on the right; Renan Santos, founder of the right-wing Movimento Brasil Livre and candidate for the Missão party; and Romeu Zema, the economically liberal former governor of Minas Gerais.
Brazil’s electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than half of valid ballots to win outright. If nobody crosses that threshold on Sunday, the two leading candidates will proceed to a runoff on October 25.
Foreign policy has become an election issue
The campaign is also testing Brazil’s place in a changing international order. Lula has promoted multilateral diplomacy and a less US-centered approach, while his opponents have the potential to bring Brazil closer to an expanding conservative political bloc associated with US President Donald Trump.
The shift in Brazil’s economic relationships is visible in trade patterns. China has been Brazil’s largest export destination since 2009, and its advantage has increased substantially since Trump returned to power. For Lula, a more multipolar strategy has become both a governing principle and a campaign argument.
Relations with the United States have been strained by tariffs and disagreements over organized crime policy in Latin America. These disputes have allowed Lula to frame the election partly around national independence and resistance to outside pressure.
The first major confrontation unfolded during the summer of 2025, when Trump announced tariffs on numerous Brazilian products. His administration explicitly referred to what it described as the politically motivated prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. Those tariffs were withdrawn in November, but the political damage had already become part of Brazil’s campaign debate.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, another son of the former president, had moved to the United States and lobbied the Trump administration on his father’s behalf. He initially took credit for helping generate pressure on Brazil. That claim later created difficulties for Flávio Bolsonaro, particularly as tariffs affected Brazilian businesses.
Trade friction resurfaced this summer when Trump imposed new duties on selected Brazilian goods. Those measures remain in force. Lula rejected the tariffs and warned that Brazil could respond in kind, though he said in a September interview that he would refrain from retaliation while talks with Washington continued.
Sovereignty becomes a message for undecided voters
The confrontation with the United States has had resonance beyond Lula’s traditional base. Some swing voters who lean conservative also identify strongly with nationalist themes, creating space for the president to argue that foreign economic pressure is a concern that crosses ideological lines.
“Some have joked that the most effective campaigner for Lula has been Donald Trump.”
“The tariffs and the other efforts to interfere in Brazil’s politics have, for the most part, backfired and helped Lula.”
Lula carried that message to the United Nations General Assembly in September, where he sought to place Brazil’s electoral debate in an international context.
“Brazil is nobody’s backyard.”
He also criticized “some Brazilian politicians” for aligning with overseas interests against Brazil’s own interests, comments broadly interpreted as a reference to Flávio Bolsonaro and his political camp.
For voters, the choice extends beyond personalities who have dominated Brazilian politics for years. It involves competing ideas about how the country should handle public security, corruption, its economy and relationships with powerful partners abroad. Lula offers continuity with a foreign policy built around multiple alliances and greater distance from Washington. Flávio Bolsonaro represents an effort to maintain the conservative movement that transformed Brazilian politics under his father.
Sunday’s vote may settle the contest immediately, or it may only begin the final phase of a hard-fought runoff campaign. Either way, Brazil’s decision will signal whether the country wants to continue Lula’s current direction or hand leadership to a new face carrying one of its most recognizable political names.
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