Germany’s far-right AfD is poised for power – and split on whether to cozy up to Trump
AfD's Saxony-Anhalt Gambit: A Path to State Power and a Fracturing Alliance with Washington
Qwenews.com – On Sunday, voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt will cast ballots in a state election that could mark a historic turning point for the country's political landscape. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) enters the contest holding a commanding lead in opinion polling, with the research firm Infratest dimap projecting roughly 42 percent of the vote. Should that figure translate into an outright parliamentary majority, the far-right formation would govern a German state for the first time since the end of World War II — a milestone that would fundamentally alter the architecture of German coalition politics.
The jump in support over just a few years has been dramatic. Yet the road from state-level victory to sustained national influence remains obstructed by institutional and cultural barriers that have kept the AfD at the margins of governing power for decades.
The Firewall and the Extremist Label
German intelligence agencies have formally designated the AfD as an "extremist" party, a classification rooted in what officials cite as the formation's rhetoric surrounding Muslim citizens and its stance on immigration. Mainstream conservative and progressive parties alike have denounced the label's implications while simultaneously upholding an unwritten parliamentary norm known as the "firewall": no coalition, no joint legislative work, no shared committee leadership with the AfD. Under that convention, if the party fails to secure an absolute majority on Sunday, the remaining parties could assemble an ad hoc coalition of any size to lock the AfD out of the state cabinet entirely.
That domestic isolation has, in part, pushed the AfD toward transatlantic partners who share its populist-nationalist vocabulary. The overlap in rhetoric is not merely cosmetic. Campaign merchandise bearing the slogan "Make Germany Great Again" has become a familiar sight at party rallies, and the ideological cross-pollination runs considerably deeper than branded headwear.
Bridging to MAGA: Meetings, Livestreams, and Inaugural Attendance
The party's co-leader Alice Weidel met US Vice President JD Vance on the margins of the Munich Security Conference last year. Earlier still, she appeared alongside Elon Musk in a livestreamed event hosted on his social platform, X. A small delegation of AfD parliamentarians also traveled to Washington to observe President Donald Trump's second inauguration ceremony.
Washington has reciprocated with visible political support. Vance, delivering his 2025 address in Munich, explicitly called on German legislators to dismantle the firewall convention. Secretary of State Marco Rubio went further, publicly condemning the German government's decision to label the party extremist and describing the move as "tyranny in disguise."
"I think there is ideological alignment on key issues, and I think the AfD is also learning from the MAGA movement," said Almut Möller, director for European and global affairs at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.
Möller elaborated that the two movements converge most sharply on what she described as the imperative to "care about (its) own people and stop caring about everybody else." Yet she cautioned that the relationship is far from frictionless, particularly when American trade policy — tariffs on European goods — or energy-price shocks tied to the Iran conflict hit German households and industry.
Cracks in the Alliance: Foreign Policy Divergences
As Trump's second term has progressed, several foreign-policy choices have drawn sharp criticism across Europe and, increasingly, within the AfD's own ranks. The military campaign against Iran, public saber-rattling over Greenland's strategic status, and interventionist moves in Venezuela have all generated unease among German voters. Public opinion data underscores the disconnect: an ARD poll conducted in March found that 58 percent of Germans regarded the strikes on Iran as unjustified, while a separate ARD survey in January showed 72 percent considering the arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro unwarranted.
Within the party, leaders have oscillated between praising Trump's domestic positions on immigration, cultural issues, and nationalism while criticizing his interventions abroad. Markus Frohnmaier, the AfD's foreign-policy spokesperson and a Bundestag member, told CNN that he has made multiple trips to the United States this year and has cultivated close ties with figures in the MAGA orbit. Speaking in his parliamentary office days before the Saxony-Anhalt vote, Frohnmaier stressed the depth of shared ground, particularly on migration.
"Remigration" and the Domestic Agenda
The AfD's electoral platform in Saxony-Anhalt centers on what the party and its sympathizers call "remigration" — a program of mass deportation of migrants and refugees coupled with the expansion of large-scale detention infrastructure. Party officials have repeatedly invoked anti-Muslim language and specifically named Muslim and Ukrainian residents when outlining whom they intend to send abroad. Additional pledges include the creation of separate school tracks and other measures aimed at what the party frames as cultural preservation.
Should the projected 42 percent materialize as a majority, the AfD would control the state cabinet, the regional legislature's agenda-setting, and key administrative appointments. That scenario would test, for the first time in the postwar era, whether the firewall convention can survive a far-right government sitting in a state capital. It would also force the remaining parties to confront, in practice rather than in theory, the question of how to govern alongside — or against — a formation that German intelligence has formally categorized as extremist.
For the broader German electorate, the Sunday result will carry implications well beyond one eastern state's budget and school policy. It will signal whether the AfD's transatlantic alignment with the MAGA movement strengthens or weakens its domestic appeal, and whether the party can convert a single state mandate into a durable national governing role. The answer, in large measure, will depend on whether voters in Saxony-Anhalt see the party as a viable governing force or as a movement still defined more by its foreign patrons than by its own administrative competence.
Related Reading
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Germany s far right AfD is poised?Germany s far right AfD is poised is the main topic of this guide. The article explains the context, practical details, and next steps readers should understand.
Why does Germany s far right AfD is poised matter?Germany s far right AfD is poised matters because readers are looking for a useful answer, not just a short summary. Good content should match search intent and help them decide what to do next.