Another ‘Super El Niño’ is brewing. Scientists are looking at a controversial solution to squash them
Another 'Super El Niño' is Brewing. Scientists Explore Controversial Climate Solution
Another Super El Niño is brewing - A new Super El Niño is forming, potentially the strongest in decades, and could trigger severe weather events with life-threatening consequences. In response, researchers are examining a radical strategy: using solar geoengineering to counteract its effects. A recent study, published Wednesday in Science Advances, suggests this approach might help mitigate the phenomenon’s worst impacts.
El Niño and Climate Change Intensify Weather Patterns
El Niño, a recurring climate cycle in the tropical Pacific, naturally raises global temperatures and intensifies extreme weather. However, human-induced climate change is amplifying these effects, pushing El Niño years into more severe conditions. The resulting heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires have already caused significant economic and human losses.
The study, led by scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, investigates whether a controversial method called "marine cloud brightening" could reduce El Niño’s intensity. This technique involves injecting particles into oceanic clouds to scatter sunlight and cool the planet. While real-world experiments are risky due to possible side effects, the researchers turned to a "natural experiment" to test the concept.
Australia’s Bushfires as a Climate Test Case
During Australia’s "Black Summer" bushfires of 2019 and 2020, millions of acres burned, releasing smoke that contained light-reflecting particles. These particles merged with clouds over the Pacific, creating ultra-reflective formations that cooled the region and influenced the onset of a La Niña event. The study analyzed this event to gauge how cloud brightening might alter El Niño outcomes.
By simulating similar scenarios before two major El Niño events—those in 1997 and 2015—the team found that deploying marine cloud brightening could reduce El Niño’s impacts by up to 40%. The technique’s effectiveness increases when applied earlier in the event, according to the research.
Geoengineering: A Double-Edged Climate Tool
“This is just a proof of concept … the only thing we’ve shown is that it’s worth further study,”
said Kate Ricke, a climate scientist at Scripps Oceanography and UC San Diego. She emphasized that the paper does not endorse geoengineering but highlights its potential as a targeted solution for extreme events.
While some experts caution against geoengineering’s risks—such as "termination shock" if the process is stopped abruptly—others see it as a viable tool. Ricke noted that the approach could be used temporarily, without long-term commitment, to address specific climate challenges.
Yet uncertainties remain. The study acknowledges that El Niño’s complexity means not all regions face the same consequences. For example, California relies on El Niño-driven rainfall to refill reservoirs, even if the event brings dangers. Understanding how cloud brightening affects subsequent La Niña events and regional climates is critical, Ricke added.
“There remain ‘many, many unanswered questions,’”
remarked James Haywood, an atmospheric science professor at the University of Exeter, who wasn’t part of the research. He highlighted the need for more investigation before large-scale deployment of such technologies.