Nicaragua s Ortega said he will End Elections: Why US Stays Cautious
Qwenews.com – Nicaragua s Ortega said he will end elections, a declaration that has sparked debate about why Washington is not responding as aggressively as it did to Cuba and Venezuela. Following the January detention of Venezuela’s president and subsequent economic measures against Cuba, observers questioned whether Nicaragua might become the next target. This Central American nation, governed by an authoritarian leader who recently dismissed the prospect of fresh elections, seemed like a logical candidate. Yet Washington has shown limited signs of preparing for immediate action, while co-presidents Daniel Ortega and his wife Rosario Murillo have maintained a restrained posture, steering clear of confrontation with the Trump administration.
Indeed, shortly after the Venezuelan operation, Managua unveiled several initiatives widely viewed as conciliatory steps. The government released numerous detainees following American demands and reestablished a visa mandate for Cuban nationals, curbing their movement northward. Additionally, April brought fresh sanctions aimed specifically at two children of the ruling couple. These measures demonstrate a calculated approach to managing international pressure without triggering a crisis.
Expert Perspectives on Regional Priorities
For Marco Rubio, Cuba matters much more than Nicaragua. Also, Nicaragua does not have Venezuela’s natural resources.
Professor Kai Thaler from the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Department of Global Studies highlighted these distinctions. He noted another critical factor: Nicaragua operates under familial control without a designated heir comparable to Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez, who assumed leadership following President Nicolas Maduro’s capture. This structural difference influences how Washington evaluates intervention strategies in each country.
Every alternative for leadership has been eliminated by Ortega and Murillo.
According to Nicaraguan political scientist Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, Washington employs a distinct strategy toward Managua versus Caracas and Havana. The administration seeks to prevent mass migration or harsh crackdowns, favoring incremental shifts rather than direct involvement. This approach reflects concerns about unintended consequences of sudden regime change.
One interpretation is that the political inertia in the Murillo and Ortega dictatorship will generate internal conflict, an economic slowdown, a possible social protest where (the US) can leverage its pressure. But not the other way around. If it intervenes at this moment, it is not known what the effect on a political transition would be.
Orozco stressed that the Sandinista regime, which has governed since 2007, currently faces neither economic instability nor widespread demonstrations. Consequently, American intervention would essentially impose a transition rather than respond to existing pressures. The timing matters significantly when considering potential outcomes.
Ortega’s Calculated Boldness
While the US remains cautious, the Ortega-Murillo administration has seized the opportunity to maintain visibility without overextending. In April, Ortega issued uncommon public remarks labeling sanctions against his offspring as “mentally deranged.” Three months later, he proclaimed the termination of elections and characterized Maduro’s arrest as a “monstrosity.”
During a Monday gathering with supporters, the strongman—who has held authority for almost two decades—declared that new elections would be barred to stop opposition forces from gaining control. This announcement represents a significant shift in Nicaragua’s political landscape and raises questions about democratic backsliding.
Thaler said such statements indicate the government “does not believe the United States is going to focus on Nicaragua, that Ortega feels safe criticizing and insulting Trump like that.”
Orozco interpreted the April comments mainly as communication directed inward. He explained that the remarks function symbolically for domestic supporters, projecting anti-imperialist credentials despite the absence of genuine solidarity with Venezuela or Cuba in either rhetoric or diplomatic actions. This internal messaging helps consolidate power among loyalists.
Looking Ahead
CNN reached out to the Nicaraguan government, which typically remains silent with journalists. Orozco observed that Washington has steadily built pressure through sanctions, a pattern Nicaragua seldom addresses. He warned against misreading the situation as automatic follow-up to Venezuela and Cuba, noting that no one has fully considered what removing these leaders would entail given the lack of organized opposition and unclear public identification of potential successors.
The international community must watch closely as Nicaragua navigates this critical period. The decisions made in the coming months could reshape not only Nicaragua’s domestic politics but also regional dynamics throughout Latin America.
