People Bet on Wildfires via Prediction Markets, Experts Warn of Disaster
People are making wildfire bets on prediction markets, a growing trend that has sparked concerns among climate scientists and psychologists. Following the Eaton fire’s devastation of Altadena, California, last year, which claimed 19 lives and destroyed thousands of structures, including Kaitlyn Trudeau’s grandfather’s home, the practice has drawn attention. While the tragedy left her family in grief, others saw opportunity. In January 2025, amid ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles, individuals wagered on Polymarket, a prominent prediction platform, to forecast fire spread, locations, and containment timelines. “It’s not just easy to start a fire — now there’s potentially a financial incentive,” Trudeau said, reflecting on the incident as she revisited her grandfather’s burned home.
The Rise of Wildfire Prediction Markets
Wildfire betting has become a part of the broader prediction markets industry, which has grown into a multibillion-dollar sector. These platforms allow users to trade shares in event outcomes, such as whether a specific region will experience a wildfire or how large it will become. The prices of these shares reflect the perceived likelihood of the event, with a “yes” share at $0.65 indicating a 65% chance of occurrence. Correct predictions can yield significant profits, turning disaster forecasting into a game of chance. Polymarket and similar platforms argue that such betting provides valuable real-time
